The Offensive Line: Week 13

Matchup of the Week

Nikhil is Unstoppable

This past week, Nikhil (1st place) eeked out yet another victory, this time against Alec (8th place). This was a revenge game for Nikhil, defeating the only team that has handed them an L this season.

"Feels good to get back at the blemish on my otherwise perfect record."
- Nikhil

They have now beaten every team in the league, and won 11 straight games in the process. This is Alec's second loss in MotW.

"What hurts the most
Was being so close
And having so much to say
And never knowing
What could've been"
- Alec

"This silver lining is that Kyle is now in MOTW"
- Alec

Matchup of the Week History

Kyle's Debut

Looking forward to this week's Matchup of the Week, incumbent champion Nikhil will be facing off against Kyle. Both teams are mostly at full strength for this matchup, with only Hollywood Brown on bye for Nikhil, and ETN coming in with a Q for Kyle. It forecasts to be yet another nail-biter, and could come down to Monday night yet again.

Awards & Recap

Week 12

Very Compact Scoring Week

This week was defined by two close matchups, and a very small range of scores across the league. This week was the first time this season every team scored at least 100 points, and half the league was within 10 points of the highest scorer of the week. Greg's loss to Matt R (6th place) was the 2nd straight week where the #2 team lost to the #1 team. This matchup was also the 4th closest game of the season, only being decided by 2.34 points. Matt R was carried by Josh Jacobs yet again. This is the 2nd time that Matt R has had Josh Jacobs put up > 38% of their points in a victory. Matt R is 3-0 when Jacobs scores at least 40 points, and 3-6 otherwise. The other close matchup this week was the MotW, which had the #8 team face off against the #11 team. This #11 performance would've been above the median in week 9, so it was definitely not your average poor showing.

Weekly Scoring Distribution w/ Historical Scores

Another bimodal week, with 6 teams > 125 and 6 teams between 100 and 115.

This week was even more compact than last week, and the schedule was a little more forgiving to the top performing teams. The matchups were 1-2, 3-9, 4-12, 5-10, 6-7, and 8-11 in terms of rank on the week.

Power Rankings

Current Standings

Nikhil has secured the #1 seed for the playoffs, up 3 games with 2 to go. Jake (12th place) got a W this week, but couldn't gain any ground as Trevor (9th place) also won.

Playoff / Last Place Outlook

Play-off odds sourced from FFHub for now. *Note: These odds are calculated purely from the history of each team's scores this year. It does not take projections or byes into account. It uses that data to run 10,000 monte carlo simulations of each matchup given a team's average score and standard deviation.
Playoff Magic # = # of your wins + # of 7th place losses for you to clinch a playoff spot outright before tiebreakers
Last Place Magic # = # of your wins + # of last place losses for you to be eliminated from the race outright before tiebreakers

The playoffs appear to be locked up according to the simulations, but there are a few scenarios that could change this, some more likely than others. The most likely scenario is that the current top 6 remain the same, and maybe some seeds shift around a bit. There will be a fight for the #2 seed to try and earn that bye week. The #6 spot is still up for grabs, and 6 teams have a chance for it.

Ignoring the most likely outcomes, there are two interesting scenarios that could lead to the biggest comeback story yet. Trevor and Greg were both once heavily involved in the race for last place. There is a slim chance one of these teams can make the playoffs if everything breaks right. Trevor would need to win out, and need Matt R and Anthony (7th place) to go 0-2. They would also need Alec to go 1-1 or 0-2, but if they go 0-2 and Anthony go 0-2, then Greg would also be 2-0 and compete for the 6 seed. Both of these teams can somewhat control their own destiny, and are relying on one-another to win in order to have a chance of making the playoffs. Out of all the unlikely teams, Josh L has the easiest schedule, but has a PF deficit that is likely impossible to overcome.

Power Rankings

Team Ability of 100 would mean you were the best team every week, and 0 would mean that you were the worst team every week.
Strength of Schedule of 100 would mean you played the best team every week, and 0 would mean that you played the worst team every week.

Josh K has finally taken over the #1 spot in the power rankings. Matt S put up a stinker as the worst team in the league this week, and dropped pretty hard in the rankings because of it. Matt R put up the #1 performance of the week, and jumped up 3 spots in the rankings.

Alternate Universes

Optimal Lineup Standings

If everyone played their best lineup every week, this is what the standings would look like. All columns include hypothetical totals.

Greg really struggles when setting his lineups, as his season would be so much better if he could just put the right players in. There's a world where he is 8-4 instead of 4-8.